I am the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I have many years experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I guess you could say that.
There are innumerable so-called gambling experts willing to dish out information of their systems to 'beat the bookie' or to make a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I won't do that. I will simply give you information about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.
The first thing to mention is that the vast majority of people who engage in gambling will be net losers over time. This is the very reason there are so many bookmakers making so much money throughout the world.
While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for instance if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they set up markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit over the medium to long term, if not the short term. That is, as long as they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models based on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and while the bookies are often spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just look at any sport and you will find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a decent wedge.
The big bookmakers spend a lot of time and money ensuring they have the right odds that ensure they take into account the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra little bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability would be 2/1. That is, two to one against that event occurring.
However, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they would set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this way they have built in the margin that ensures, over time, they will profit from people betting on this selection. It is the same concept as a casino roulette.
So how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it's easier said than done, but far from impossible.
One way is to get very good at mathematical modelling and set up a model that takes into account as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it seems, it can never account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.
Alternatively you can find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that make them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds will have more information than you.
However, if you are betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is possible, through hard work reading lots of stats, and general information gathering, you can start to gain an edge over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).
And what do you do when you have an edge in information terms? You follow the value.
Value betting is where you back a selection at odds that are greater than the actual probability of an event occurring. So for instance, if you assess the probability of a particular non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you have a value bet on your hands. The reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookie) suggest a probability of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby's chances, so you have effectively built in an 8% margin for yourself.
Of course Grimsby (as is often the case) might fluff their lines and fail to win the match, and hence you could lose the bet. But if you continue to seek out and bet on value bets, over time you will make a profit. If you do not, over time, you will lose. Simple.
So the question is, do you have the time and inclination to spend hours finding and refining your sporting niches and/or seeking out the value bets? If the answer is yes, good on you, go for it. If the answer is no, do not fear. At
we give regular free betting tips along with the best odds for various sporting events that will take the hassle out of making your sporting selections and bring you news, match previews and all the best free bet offers to help you get on the best value bets around.
Or, of course, you could marry a football player!
If you’re into gambling, then you know that finding the perfect location to set up for the night is key to having a good time. When people think of gambling, they immediately think of Las Vegas, and for good reason. Perhaps no other city in the world is as well known for its casinos and crazy nights. But focusing just on Las Vegas means you’re overlooking tons of international locations that can offer equally impressive gambling experiences. Read on for some suggestions for your next big trip.
San Jose, Costa Rica
Not many people associate gambling with Costa Rica, but the capital city has become a growing destination for tourists from the United States, Canada, and Europe. The exchange rate is great, so your chances of getting lucky rise from the moment you step off the plane. With over 30 casinos, there is no shortage of places to gamble the night away. When you step away from the tables and slot machines, you will also find the added bonus of being in the middle of paradise. There is no better escape than sipping a drink on a beautiful beach.
Paris is known as the city of love, not a city that has a great gambling scene. Interestingly enough, online gambling is still illegal in France, so when locals want to try to win some money, they have no choice but to enter the real world and visit a casino. While they don’t have a ton of them in the city, the ones they do have are fantastic.
The gaming industry in Singapore is fairly new, but it is growing quickly, with the construction of several luxury casinos and resorts. Singapore’s proximity to China makes it ideal for wealthy businessmen to spend the weekend and gamble at a luxurious location. Singapore is a unique option for American gamblers, as it offers them the opportunity to participate in the games they love while also spending time in one of the most technologically advanced cities on Earth.
People typically view London as a pretty reserved town, unlikely to be into poker or blackjack. However, London is one of the most important cities on the planet economically. There are many casinos open to the public, but the most interesting ones are those that are a bit more private. Exclusive establishments have strict policies about who is allowed inside.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with staying close to home if you’re looking for a fun night out. But, if gambling is truly your passion and you want to make a vacation out of it, why not travel to somewhere that you’ve never been before? Even if you lose in the casino, you’ll win an incredible travel experience. That seems like a pretty good bet to take.